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CNBC
Dec 7, 2012 4:00pm EST
the fiscal cliff would be good? >> we have an enormous deficit problem in the united states. nobody's dealt with it since bill clinton was president of the united states. there are a number of things we're going to have to do in order to meet our deficit. we're going to have to both raise taxes and cut spending. one of the areas we must cut spending is defense. there hasn't been serious cuts in defense in 30 years. the defense industry is well positioned. they have plants in something in over 300 districts. there's a lot of bipartisan defense spending. for example, the defense authorization bill that just passed yesterday in the senate gave the pentagon $17 billion more than they asked for. so to think that any industry or any taxpayer or any group of people who depend on government spending can be exempted from the serious problem that we have that's caused by this deficit is a mistake. everybody is going to have to pay for this. >> dawn, right or wrong, the defense industry has this reputation of being bloated, overcharging. are we at a point where we could afford to make cuts in de
CNBC
Dec 2, 2012 7:30pm EST
the economy. we have had 1% for every year of the recovery. the deficit has improved by about 3.5% in the first 3 1/2 years of the recovery. so a little more modest fiscal tightening hasn't stopped the recovery and probably won't next year. i agree it is a negative but you have to weigh it in the drop in unemployment, the revival in china, the four-year high in confidence, the rise in home prices and housing activity. a lot of other positives will help keep consumers, businesses and other things strong even in the face of modest tightening. >> which sectors are at risk? even if there is an agreement. you say there are certain sectors at risk even with an agreement. >> the areas at risk are more the risk-on strategies, the aggressive strategies. for instance technology could come under pressure. some of the areas which have been hit more recently such as high dividend stocks, dividend utilities are likely to benefit. i don't think the taxes will increase much on them after all. you have some areas which will get affected. i would say don't be aggressive. don't look for economic growth
CNBC
Nov 30, 2012 7:00pm EST
making -- can't pay their bills. let's remember where this deficit came from. it came from the iraq war run off budget. it came from a financial crisis that rewarded a lot of executives who are still paying low capital gains tax. >> there's a fabulous article on the front page of "investor's business daily" which i recommend to you. a fabulous article. i'm going to talk about it on tomorrow's radio show about the benefits of the bush tax cuts which by the way generated higher revenues. let's not go there tonight. >> for who, though? >> for everybody. in fact, the middle class -- >> that's why median wages actually dropped this year? >> just look at the numbers that obama uses. if you repeal the top tax rates you're supposed to make 800 billion. if you repeal the whole bill you're supposed to lose 4.5 trillion. it all went to the middle class. i got to challenge your facts on that. that went to the middle class. but do you think right now that there is a chance, i mean responding to what peter said, do you think that obama is going to cold shoulder the gop? here's why i'm saying this. le
CNBC
Nov 30, 2012 6:00am EST
the reduced deficits and lower interest rates will lead to growth in the economy and an increase in business travel spending. >>> welcome back. now to the weather channel. reynolds wolf is standing by. what is happening around the country today? >> the story is all west. everything is taking place out west. rain, some strong winds, even some snow. some places snow getting up to around 2, 3 feet, but that is high elevation. but for the eastern seaboard, pretty quiet p. temperatures very mild this time of year. when you get into the center of the u.s., still fairly mild conditions. a bit cooler as you might imagine in spots up like towards the twin cities and even over towards chicago. but then out west, that's where the trouble really brews. it's that time of year that there's norm lay big area of high pressure that sets up off the west coast. that's gone and that allows all the pacific moisture to come through. high snow will be an issue. rain in seattle. so how is it going to affect your travel? a little bit of a trend continuing here. again, all your issues out towards the west. s
CNBC
Dec 3, 2012 6:00am EST
. now he's on a deficit crusade. david walker, taxes ranger, next. toward all your financial goals. a quick glance, and you can see if you're on track. when the conversation turns to knowing where you stand, turn to us. wells fargo advisors. the latest coffee machine from nespresso. modular. intuitive. combines espresso and fresh milk. the new u. nespresso. what else? available at these fine retailers. who have used androgel 1%, there's big news. presenting androgel 1.62%. both are used to treat men with low testosterone. androgel 1.62% is from the makers of the number one prescribed testosterone replacement therapy. it raises your testosterone levels, and... is concentrated, so you could use less gel. and with androgel 1.62%, you can save on your monthly prescription. [ male announcer ] dosing and application sites between these products differ. women and children should avoid contact with application sites. discontinue androgel and call your doctor if you see unexpected signs of early puberty in a child, or, signs in a woman which may include changes in body hair or a large increase
CNBC
Dec 5, 2012 4:00am EST
today. the chancellor will have his work cut out to meet his target of eradicating the federal deficit by 2015 as well as securing a fall to gdp ratio. also expected further pressure with a cut to its growth forecast. steve is braving rather inclement british winter weather outside the houses of parliament. >> lovely. >> i know you like it. how much is it going to be raining on george osbourne's parade? >> it's going to rain on his parade. you just nailed it, ross. three things which are going to come up today, which he has very little control over. one is that obr reckoning on the uk economy. thought only back in march it was going to grow -- pain a negative growth for the year. next year they thought it was going to be 2% growth. it's probably only going to be 1%. in terms of those two targets you mentioned, eradicating the structural deficit in a five-year period, that's going to have another couple of years. >> right. now, there we go. you can see jim there in egypt. i wonder whether we should just go as we've decided to cut to him or maybe we can bring steve back. right. we'll try
CNBC
Nov 30, 2012 4:00am EST
gradually repairing itself and healing itself with the assistance of the fiscal deficit. and this is one of the key things that if you pull that away too soon, you'll slow down the repair in the private sector balance sheets. and then you'll go much closer to stall speed so the economy will be much more vulnerable and exposed to shocks from europe, oil, you name it. >> and of course it increases the deficit, makes the troubles more difficult to direct longer term and now they want it do sort of the major reform entitlement next year. is that ever going to happen if the impetus isn't to deal with it right away? >> i think nancy pelosi and others are correct that the real issue, not just democrats, but also various republicans and bowles-simpson and everyone else, the real issue confronting the united states is not tomorrow's fiscal cliff. it's the outyears and the fiscal abyss of these entitlements that are unfunded. clearly unaffordable. so our view of the optimal way to deal with this is to not worry about today's fiscal deficit because that's a consequence of where the economy is.
CNBC
Dec 3, 2012 4:00pm EST
security will be affected, high terrific will be affected. it's it's the federal deficit. it's the federal debt, which is a huge risk for national security. right now the defense department has taken, as i said, about can half a trillion dollars of deduction in the first round but the strategy aligns to the point we can meet national security objectives and still accomplish or make though cuts. if you start putting another half a trillion on top of, that you shatter the strategy. and then national security has to be free thought. i propose we need more of a fiscal stairstep reduction so that reductions can be made with strategy in mind. strategy and national security needs have got to be tweaked and done in concert. that's the way to do this. and i think in the end, you know, you're going to have to see reduction -- you're going to have to see more reductions in defense, but hopefully nowhere near the levels that the fiscal cliff and sequestration would impose. >> so, are employees expecting this? i mean, have you to be living under a rock not to see what's going on with the fiscal
CNBC
Nov 29, 2012 3:00pm EST
$16 trillion debt. we've got a deficit every year of $1 trillion or more -- >> i'm saying the savings are in pharmaceuticals. >> where are the cuts? >> we can cut by not paying the maximum price to the pharmaceuticals. the savings is located in that. i don't know how much money they've said we can raise in these other areas. social security is not a part of our deficit problem. so the only other two entitlements we got is how to detake care of the poor, and if we don't take care of the poor, it means additional expenses. >> would you be in favor of means testing medicare and social security? in other words, taking those wealthy americans who don't need those benefits and take them off those roles as a savings? >> there's no question that removing the cap for higher people that are in the higher income is one of the sources of income that i could support. no question about that. >> let me ask you this, congress pan. would you prefer top just deal with the revenue and forget about cutting at all at this point because of the slow economy? is that where you're headed here? >> no,
CNBC
Nov 30, 2012 1:00pm EST
called upon to do a little more in terms of helping to pay down our deficit and debt. i think the electorate answers that question so that's got to play a role in the negotiation and has. but i think we'll get to yes. >> how are you going to do it though? you said you know you're going to have to compromise. what areas in entitlements, for instance, or other areas do you think there is a willingness to compromise to get us closer to resolving the fiscal cliff issue? >> i think democrats have already shown a willingness to make very significant cuts. we've already in the budget control act agreed to an excess of $1 trillion of cuts. that's a pretty good faith counsel payment on our willingness to come to the table and do things that are very painful and difficult for us to do. we haven't seen that yet reciprocated in terms of gop willingness to raise the kind of revenues that we've already committed to reducing in terms of spending cuts. but i think we've demonstrated very good faith that we're ready to make the hard calls to pay down our debt, balance our books. at the same time,
CNBC
Dec 4, 2012 11:00pm EST
. fewer jobs, larger deficit. not smaller. and the federal reserve that's throwing up its hands, can't do anything. as i said last night, it doesn't matter. we can pick our stocks and buy them down. like the fabulous names, amazon, ulta salons. buy them down in scales like i outline in the book "real money." now suggesting other groups giving you a bang for the buck. new groups betting that the hope will be squeezed out and the bottom gets put in before a deal is made -- or not. why not? we know the auto market is for 11 years now and we have been sweet on ford domestically. before sandy. where are we internationally? europe. what are some of the other key area, though? i think latin america, though. i think it's coming back. asia already turned. here's the new piece of data. i think europe could be stablized. ford is the one to watch. you get that thing at 11 or blow. i'm out blessing it. haven't done that in a while. in europe i'm thinking that i'm sanguine. excited about ford. we have ample evidence today that i'm right. affordability is skyrocketing. the rates remained too low. hom
CNBC
Nov 30, 2012 9:00am EST
gets long-term deficit under control in a way that is fair and balanced. >> stocks trade on fiscal cliff comments from president obama and john boehner. >> no substantive progress has been made in talks between the white house and the house over the last two weeks. the white house has to get serious. >> republicans know where we stand. we have said it. we've said it. we've said it so many times. >> i think all of us today are confident we can reach a bipartisan agreement by christmastime. >> according to a congressional republican aides who have talked to "the wall street journal," they obtained a copy of the white house prover here in the negotiations. >> do you have faith in any of them to rise above? >> would it be okay to go over? >> we will rise above. >> eamon javers joins us live from washington. they seem farther apart than ever before. the dow is above 13,000 for the first time in several weeks. do you think the markets are reading comments correctly? >> i do think markets have gotten it wrong a lot this week. they have been reacting strongly to things that are boilerplate
CNBC
Nov 29, 2012 6:00am EST
have to find some way to change the deficit and we have for the got p baten back to any of growth. >> it's because you all the borrowing has scared consumers, scared business investors. so what you really need is if president obama ran on a balanced plan, okay, he won, so maybe the reality is some tax rate will question up, but the problem with that is our deficit last year was $1090 billion large. my point to president obama is where is the other part of your balanced plan. how are you into to go restrain or close the additional trillion dollars worth of deficit. >> you want to see entitlements tackled. in th if that were the case, would you then go on the tax rate on the richest americans? >> i'm not going to answer hypotheticals and negotiate here on the set. what we need to do is see the president's plan. i've done enough negotiations in business to understand who is negotiating in good faith wlorks is moving the goal posts. i think it's time right now for president obama to show the american people his full balanced plan. we haven't seen it. democrats haven't passed a budget
CNBC
Dec 7, 2012 9:00am EST
spending slashed. you can't make up the budget deficit just by raising money from rich people. >> let's talk netflix. receiving wells notice from s.e.c., regulators warning they may bring civil action against the company and the ceo for violating public disclosure rules with a facebook post. back on july 3rd, the ceo posting netflix a monthly viewing exceeded 1 billion hours for the first time ever in june. the s.e.c. requires public companies to make the information public. hastings says he didn't believe the facebook post was material information although that day the stock was up 13%. in a letter yesterday, he also suggested the fact the post was assessable to more than 245,000 subscribers to the page makes it very public. you can choose to disclose information through other venues considered fair that may reach fewer people at the end of the day. >> ain't up to you. it's up to the government. >> rules are rules. >> and these things do need to evolve. there is little doubt about that. i remember when fd was put in. i would have conversations with executives and say you can
CNBC
Nov 29, 2012 5:00pm EST
. >> part of this is speck. part of it is real. copper is going to be a deficit, at least if you listen to what the chinese supplies are telling you. freeport at 3960 has a lot of resistance. you're just about there. >> barnes & noble was a drop today, a big one. 11%. >> i'll refrain from the jokes, although there are many. we've cautioned against this one, although it has had a nice bounce. the quarter was lousy. there was news around 3:00 that might have been construed at bullish. i think it goes lower. >> why refrain from them? >> usually you jump right into them. >> this is a nice time of year to go to barnes & noble. hang out for seven or eight hours. >> read. >> put your name tag on in case you forget who you are. it's all good. >> all right. moving on. pop for kroger up 4%. >> kroger is basically your old school supermarket where whole foods is the trendy one. it's been outperforming whole foods. i'd say with kroger. i would play haines celestial. >> pop for facebook, up 3%. >> well, piper javr ri reported facebook might go with a wanted button. they feel like this could g
CNBC
Dec 4, 2012 12:00pm EST
percent or more on car insurance. >>> our thesis is that with a pretty big deficit/debt problem ultimately you'll have to unwind some of the stimulus and that would be bad for the market multiples in the interim. >> well, that was one of the street's biggest bears, morgan stanley's adam parker. our next guest has an entirely different opinion and he says stocks are going sharply higher over the next few months regardless of what happens in washington. barry bannister joins us now live. barry, it's nice to see you. >> hi. >> i'd call you a market bull, but i'd be doing you a disservice. you are looking for 1600 in just the next couple of months. how in the world will we get there? >> well, we do need some fiscal clarity. i don't think we can get there without that. right now the central banks have been in the lead around the world and we need the politicians to fall in line. it's taken longer than i thought, though. >> so originally, what, you had 1600 s&p by the end of this year, am i correct, by 2012? >> yeah, the election left a lot of the status quo intact about the house, th
CNBC
Dec 3, 2012 2:00pm EST
not hurt the most needy? the president's response to that question was -- we can reduce deficit in balanced ways by ending tax cuts for the top 2% plus reforms that strengthen safety net and invest in the future. he signed it bo. the next question that he answered was from mike,@mike5673. mr. president, why wouldn't keeping tax rates low across the board encourage more hires and therefore more tax revenue? on that the president responded -- high-end tax cuts do least for economic growth and cost almost $1 trillion. extending middle class cuts boosts consumer demand and growth. meantime the white house photographer tweeted a picture of the president answering tweets. speaker of the house john boehner also got into the conversation saying, mr. president, the budget will never balance without economic growth. how does raising tax rates on 1 million small businesses create jobs and grow the economy? let's see if the president responds to that one. he still has it. back over to you. >> that feels a little bit like a side show. >> tax cuts on one group help but tax cuts over here won't h
CNBC
Dec 7, 2012 3:00pm EST
deficit coming up next. >>> and as bad as john boehner made it sound, how come the markets seem to be trading like we are going to have a deal? what does wall street know that we don't? tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 when i'm trading, i'm totally focused. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and the streetsmart edge trading platform from charles schwab... tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 gives me tools that help me find opportunities more easily. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 i can even access it from the cloud and trade on any computer. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and with schwab mobile, tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 i can focus on trading anyplace, anytime. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 until i choose to focus on something else. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 all this with no trade minimums. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and only $8.95 a trade. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 open an account with a $50,000 deposit, tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and get 6 months commission-free trades. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 call 1-866-294-5412. >>> there's that word, absolute. is it an absolute fiasco? time for our daily visit with eamon javers, who living this rolling calamity in washingt
CNBC
Nov 30, 2012 3:00pm EST
to address the debt and deficit. >> so was this proposal the white house made yesterday with more spending and very few spending cuts, was that what mr. sorenson was expecting out of the gate? he joins us on the telephone with his thoughts. good to have you with us. >> glad to be with you. >> when you were with the other ceos at the white house, does it jive with what we're hearing about that made mitch mcconnell laugh yesterday? are those two plans one in the same? >> well, i'm hopeful that what's happening in the media is posturing by both parties and doesn't reflect where either party thinks a deal will end up. i think what the president talked with us about on wednesday afternoon was much more a sense of where things ought to end up, and that was, i think, somewhat different than it sounds like what was proposed. >> so you didn't hear about the tax increase for the wealthiest, the spending increases that made mitch mcconnell laugh. those specifics you didn't get into with the president on wednesday, is that what you're saying? >> we certainly talked with the president and hear
CNBC
Dec 6, 2012 4:00am EST
. it's forecast to continue to fall, so we are making progress. britain started with a large deficit, but we're getting it down. >> you've drawn criticism about the lack of supporting growth. when will we see measures that booth the long term growth of the economy. >> i think you see two sorts of measures. big structural reforms to education and welfare, but also yesterday changes to our tax regime. so we now have one of the lowest corporation tax rates of any major economy in the world. we've just cut it so that it will be 21%, much lower than our competitors. and we've also greatly increased the allowances for small and medium sized firms so they can invest and expand. so where we've been able to help businesses, we've absolutely done that, and we've had very positive reaction from the business community. >> how concerned are you about the aaa rating and the risk that we continue to drift, still need to cut more and boost growth? >> well, we've got to go on commanding the confidence of the world that we can deal with our debts. that is reflected in the very, very low interest rates
CNBC
Nov 30, 2012 5:00pm EST
that keeps the economy moving is the effect of wide deficits, monetary policies. i am not feeling that good about it. >> we can string our own story together. we have to admit that in november consumer discretionary was the top performing s&p sector. how do you account for that divergence? people are now getting concerned about the consumer? >> we are getting worried about the consumer in china. we knew the industrial story in china was problematic and the consumer was the good news. now we are worried about the consumerer over here despite the fact that housing prices are improving and we are headed to the holiday. dan mentions tiffany. mcdonald's which really hung in there and done well not as well as yum but mcdonald's is faced with problems as far as same store sales and turnover. none of these consumer names, none of them are doing really well. >> to the yum story if we are going to say yum is having problems in china you have to think about the other multinationals that are highly leveraged to china growth, a big driver of the future growth will come from that region. you th
CNBC
Dec 6, 2012 6:00am EST
deficit -- two different ways. you either keep the government that you have and pay for it by raising taxes, or you kind of leave taxes where they are and you shrink government down to where it pays for it. does it matter for the future and for growth which way you do it in your view? >> it does. if you put it all into like a tightening, so how much tightening occurs in the economy that would slow the economy, it's far better to actually reduce government spending than it is to actually raise taxes. >> although that hurts the economy, too. >> everything hurts the economy. so it's a question of which is most -- or least harmful and that tends to be cutting government spending. >> but i do think it's -- >> although tim geithner would disagree with me. >> one side wants to keep the government and entitlements like we have it. and the other side wants to take away all the excess government -- >> i think both sides agree that you need to do both. just a question of how much. >> we need to do both to do a deal. i don't think both sides dwre that it's the right thing to do. just to get a dea
CNBC
Dec 7, 2012 6:00am EST
payment in 2013 which brings the deficit to gdp ratio down from 7% down to 6%. if we could do that along with some long-term agreement we'll get another trillion out of entitlements or a trillion from taxes or somewhere else but a range of what we'll do in 2013 where we'll get the money for the rest of the sort of fiscal issues over the next few years but some down payment. we get the down payment and it's a reasonable downappointment not one that will crush the economy, i think the market could react very well to that. >> what's your opinion on what's going on in the economy ex-sandy? you were saying a better jobs number would show the economy is resilient. do you think it is resilient, if it doing, if you can take out the effects of the hurricane, better than people think? >> i think it's got so much potential. i see all the hesitancy here. but pent-up demand is forcing the housing market higher. pent-up demand is forcing the vehicle market higher. consumer finances are very much improved. people have locked in the 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages at a wonderful rate. everything is actual
CNBC
Dec 5, 2012 7:00pm EST
right now is because they think these discussions and negotiations are about deficit reduction. president obama thinks they're about fairness. most americans, solid majority, want to see taxes raised on those upper income americans, even though only 19% think it will have much of an impact on deficits. it's not about the fiscal crisis. it's about fairness in the minds of most americans. president obama understands that and republicans don't. >> is that because in your polling day, i always thought that people favored spending reduction and favored smaller government. this may be a mistake that the gop has not emphasized spending cuts. >> they certainly do. most people -- two out of three people want to see a deal that includes both tax hikes and spending cuts. they want to see more spending cuts, but they don't expect spending cuts to come out of this no matter what happens. in fact, the one thing that most people in the middle class believe is that regardless of whether we go over the fiscal cliff or whether a deal is reached to avert that, middle class taxes are going up, and
CNBC
Dec 4, 2012 6:00pm EST
deficit. as i said last night, it doesn't matter, we can pick our stocks and buy them down. ulta salons, but i want to suggest to other groups that are going to give you bang for the buck, betting that the hope will be squeezed out and the bottom gets put in before a deal is made. why not? we know the auto market is for 11 years now and we have been sweet on ford domestically. what are some of the other key areas. asia already turned. i think europe could be stablized. ford is the one to watch. i'm out blessing it. in europe i'm thinking that i'm excited about ford. we have ample evidence today that i'm right. the rates remained too low. and pricing is moving up in california, nevada, arizona all things we learned from the luxury home builder toll today. that is fine. but what i hadn't heard is a demographic play, how the demographics are going to take over. household formation is unnatural and because of the great resection. well, from the delay of creation of new families, which is highly unusual, what makes that so special? the fiscal cliff could be a big deal. i'm going to pu
CNBC
Dec 5, 2012 6:00am EST
trillion identified. >> howard dean is a deficit hawk. liberal, but he is a deficit hawk. he doesn't say maybe if we can't get a deal together, maybe we'd be okay with the fiscal cliff. he says that is the best deal for everyone, the best deal for progressives, just to do it. to go back to the clinton era rates. you get rid of three quarters of the deficit just on tax increases at that point. >> and he says you get defense cuts. >> you can't get defense cuts any other way. and he's not the only one. there's a lot of people on the left and there's quite a few people on the right. i'm glad you're optimistic and a lot of ceos and guys in your position -- if you run a company, you don't need consumers petrified and business people petrified. this is the last thing we need if you run a company. i understand you have a horse in the game. >> but you also have the double trigger. if you go over the cliff, we've got the debt ceiling fight right afterwards. it's not like that's six months down the line. that's in if first month, six weeks of the new year. >> the other thing, depending on where
CNBC
Nov 30, 2012 4:00pm EST
-term deficit under control in a way that is fair and balanced. >> a reversal of fortune on wall street. stocks trade on fiscal cliff comments from president obama and john boehner. >> no substantive progress has been made in the talks between the white house and the house over the last two weeks. >> republicans know where we stand. we've said it, we've said it, we've said it so many times. >> i think all of us today are confident we can reach a bipartisan agreement by christmas time. >> according to congressional republican aides, they say they have obtained a copy of the white house's proffer here. at least $50 billion in new spending. >> do you have faith in any of them to rise above? >> would it be okay to go over? >> we will rise above. >> morgan stanley wealth management's chief investment strategist up next with his list of winners and losers. plus, how you can make money in these shaky markets as the year winds down. >>> later, as lawsuits pile up and hewlett-packard stock suffers, carly fiorina will join me for her first interview since the autonomy disaster came to ligh
CNBC
Dec 3, 2012 12:00pm EST
deficit/debt problem, ultimately you'll have to unwind some of the stimulus and that will be bad for the market multiples. i could be wrong for a whole host of reasons. people believing the u.s. economic trajectory is going to be better, acceleration in china, et cetera. i think you know we upgraded our exposure to china last week, and upgraded the industrial sector. so i kind of agree with some of the comments you just made which is the very recent data points look better in china. the u.s. exposed companies have really outperformed the u.s. companies with china exposure and therefore that latter group is cheap. so we like increasing the china exposure. and that could cause a rally overall. but certainly could make some of the china-centric u.s. stocks do better. so i kind of like that trade. >> adam, josh brown. i'm curious. looks like the consensus is coalescing around $113 for s&p earnings next year. my first question is, what multiple is appropriate, given the fact we're going to have these fiscal drags in the form of tax rates and government spending, number one. and number
CNBC
Dec 4, 2012 3:00pm EST
the left and the right come together and find a credible plan in reducing the deficit but avoiding actually falling off a cliff at the end of the year. it's very possible that they don't reach an agreement between now and january 1st. however, when january 15th hits and most americans receive their first paycheck and they notice it's actually lower, i think hell is going to break loose. as a result of that, they'll come back to the table and reach an agreement. >> i think don't panic is good advice, but i don't see what the problem is with taking a little cash off the table here and putting it on the side and waiting to see if we do get a major adverse market reaction to them putting that cash to work once we get a resolution. >> this is what makes a market. thank you for your divergent thoughts on the market today. see you later. thanks. >>> when we come back, we have the closing countdown already for this tuesday. >> then, we're watching netflix. the stock surging today on a deal with disney. is the stock move justified? we'll check it out. more on that straight ahead. stay with
CNBC
Dec 5, 2012 2:00pm EST
deficits in 2013. now we have been here before. this happened in california in 2 dhou 2001. capital gains boomed, then crashed. people front loaded their income when they expect it to go up, just like they're doing today. cap gains doubled to $52 billion, then the next year they crashed to $33 billion. the government struggled to fill that hole. the lesson here is that tax changes create huge spikes and crashes in revenue. now if governments understood this, we could plan for it but so far, brian, there is no evidence that governments, either state or federal, have learned this lesson. >> why is this so hard for us to figure out? you just laid it out. we've been here before. >> we've been here before. we've been here every decade we get to this point where we have this sudden artificial explosion in revenues whether from the market or tax havens. when governments get money they like to spend it. they like to pretend it is the new normal and they can budget along those lines but the temptation is to spend that money and budget around it. then suddenly we have 2013. >> remember world war i?
CNBC
Dec 5, 2012 4:00pm EST
don't get our arms around the debt and lower the debt and deficits of the u.s., what are the implications for our kids? what are the implications for the economy? give it to us straight. >> there's no question that the most important challenge for us to tackle here is controlling health care costs. medicare is at the center of it when it comes to the budget. we're going to have to do as much as possible to get on top of the fact that health care costs squeezing out the rest of the budget. that's true through the whole system, and we're going to have to fix the way that entitlement program works. in terms of what this means for the country, the whole issue here is are we going to leave the economy strong enough for the next generation? that's what this comes down to. what we're going now, we're making these short-term choices. we've been make them for years. we're spending more than we're willing to pay for, and we're basically saying to the next generation, here's the bill. and it's going to just undermine the strength of the economy. i should point out, we're not borrowing t
CNBC
Nov 29, 2012 4:00pm EST
out of this deficit. >> we've talked about that before. thanks very much. that is the first hour of "the closing bell." stay tuned. up next, a couple ceos with their take on where we go from here. the second hour with maria. i'll see you tomorrow. >>> and it is 4:00 on wall street. do you know where your money is? hi, everybody. welcome back to "the closing bell." i'm maria bartiromo on the floor of the new york stock exchange. the market on a roller coaster ride today. a slight gain on the session, even though the market closed off the best levels of the afternoon. it had been up about 77 at its best. nasdaq composite picked up 23 points. the s&p 500 tonight up 7 1/2, half a percent. the market continues to watch the fiscal cliff. trading action has resolvolved around this. ben, what is your fiscal cliff strategy? what do you want to do with your money in the economy does go off the fiscal cliff? >> yeah, we were worried about that back in september, october. so even though we like the equity markets going into 2013, we wanted to hedge ourselves a little bit, so we took money out o
CNBC
Dec 3, 2012 9:00am EST
the deficit and avoid a raft of tax hikes and spending cuts. yesterday our own jim cramer and maria bartiromo were on "meet the press" and cramer had a message for fellow panelists and father of the anti-tax pledge, grover norquist. >> most ceos are republican. they're on board. they're not on board with you. they're not on board with you because they fear your view. they think you do not favor going -- you favor going over the cliff. that's what they think. they think that you favor -- >> just for the record since we're on tv. that's silly if they think that they shouldn't be ceos. >> it doesn't really matter. that's what they think. >> i want you to walk me up to that moment. >> behind the record. i like that too. >> i'm stuck. like grover is stuck with this pledge he made everybody take which is that they have to go over the cliff because they obviously will not ever say the word tax. they will only say revenue. i'm stuck speaking to many more ceos than grover norquist is. he thinks it's silly. he thinks ceos are silly. i don't think they're silly. they control hiring in this cou
CNBC
Nov 28, 2012 7:00pm EST
if our budget deficit widens out forever, if we're irresponsible and governor doesn't work. left with those four choices, think think -- on the flip side, did republicans ask you to spend any nuts -- i think at this point both sides have acknowledged that there's going to be revenue concessions and entertainment concessions. in fact, if you listen to, it again, i'm not a master of the political art here, i'm in washington but i would say if you had these points of views in a business context, as close as they are, i would say a deal would be in reach. >> you see some fundamental level of optimism from lloyd blankfine but a long way to go with the combination of prief pressure and public pressure, like the president is going to exert before we actually go to the flight of fired. i asked the treasury secretary should the president return to wall street. he it must be someone who understands markets, marry. >> me have 33 days to -- head of all pi he told john harwood. marge i will hates have to go up somewhat. he said that's going to put a drag on the economy but we have to do somet
CNBC
Nov 29, 2012 4:00am EST
of increasing the deficit and increasing the aggregate debt against the backdrop ofactuarial certainty is really concerning. so the market seems to be very, very much focused on events and is driven by those reactions as we've seen. there's a lot more volatility creeping in. >> and given what we're talking about, all the risks you've laid out, what's getting some attention is the fact that the vix is now not the above 20 for four straight months. the last time we had a stretch that long was heading in to the early part of 2007. so do you interpret this as a good sign or is this in your kind of reasons to be cautious camp? >> i'd say reasons to be cautious. people forget what the vix is actually about. it really measures future performance or participation. so if you get what we refer to as complacency, you're not seeing very many bets against a downturn or even hedges against a downturn. so if everybody is getting on one side of the trade, similar to what happened with gold last year, when everybody was on the gold trade, we started to get very concerted that almost close it
CNBC
Dec 6, 2012 9:00am EST
the imf study when you cut the deficit by 1%, what is the impact on the gdp. they didn't get into that this morning but if his numbers he's using 0.9 to 1.4, if you lose 2% to 3% of gdp you'll go to negative growth which will impact -- >> at the very least the wheels will be on the runway. >> absolutely. >> let's switch gears, mario draghi today, listen, i was so wrong and i don't know how long it will last but i give him credit, at least for this period of time, how long it lasts because there is no growth and recession in europe i can't answer but what were your observations on that press conference? >> last night when i wrote about it, mario draghi can put his feet up and have a stella and enjoy. he bought himself time. july 6th will be mario draghi's day of celebration because he stemmed the financial crisis in europe and bought time. berlusconi comes onto the scene this morning with the politics and italian debt markets paid a price for it, it's coming back as we're talking, rallied back quite a bit in the ten-year bond futures in italy but you know what, politics aside, mari
CNBC
Dec 6, 2012 7:00pm EST
have the deficit we have. the truth is, if you want to balance the budget, which i do, you have to have increased revenues and you have significant spending cuts. and you have said many times on this program that raising taxes on rich people is not enough to deal with the deficit. you are right. the truth is, the best thing we could do is go over the fiscal cliff. we have the same tax rates that we have when bill clinton was president. significant cuts in defense and also significant human services can you tell us. >> katie, let me ask you, before you respond to what governor dean is saying. there is logic to what howard dean is saying. i don't happen to agree with it. but i know where he's coming from. katie, let me ask you this -- katie can't hear me. we'll wait for her to get back hooked in. howard, what about the notion that i'm posing tonight -- i've said this a few times -- republicans better be careful. they're not going down your road and the democrats aren't going down your road. you have middle class tax cuts for the democrats and it sometimes sounds to me as an old reaga
CNBC
Dec 3, 2012 4:00am EST
britain's progress towards deficit reduction, this ahead of the chancellor's autumn statement. senior fellow for international economics. will the numbers live up to the expectations. meanwhile, over in ghi narks the mainland's factories are crank out more goods at the fastest pace in month. >> chinese factories appear to be recovering. the hsbc pmi, a private gauge of manufacturing, and the government's official pmi, both show a steady improvement for the industry in november. the hsbc pmi final reading came in at 50.5, the quickest expansion in over a year. the industry saw a pick up in new orders as well as stronger exports thanks in part to christmas demand. the concern is about the the unevenness of the recovery. the sub indices for employment as well as small and medium sized companies ticked downwards and that suggested to some that the recovery is mainly led by investment in state-owned enterprises. a bigger worry is about the outlook for external demand especially in the united states. people here are worried about the fiscal cliff and the potential impact that it could have
CNBC
Dec 4, 2012 6:00am EST
deficit is gone. it was supposed to sunset two years ago. when is a good time to let those things sunset? >> you're right, there's never a good time. >> maybe do something with the sequester, but let the tax cuts expire. >> although i have to say at this time it's too much i think in terms of the tax increase. >> we never want any pain. >> you're right. and we do need to get our fiscal house in order. but again, this is why the idea would be to come up with a longer term plan where you could scale some of these things in and you have to come up with a plan that you'll stick to, otherwise you get into this where -- >> we never stick to anything. if we get another deal that is toothless and -- >> the markets will become even more skeptical because we've seen this before. but i have to say two things. i don't necessarily buy into the deal that there's a fiscal slope. i have to say on the tax side, one of the things we keep talking about is the amt. boy, that's something that will -- >> howard goes on and on. clinton tax rates on everybody. will it cause a problem? yeah, short recessi
CNBC
Dec 4, 2012 4:00am EST
. >>> house republicans put forward their plan to cut the u.s. deficit, but the proposal is quickly dismissed by democrats and the white house. >>> and australia central bank cuts interest rates to the lowest level since the financial crisis in a bid to get ahead of sluggish commodities demand. we're on tuesday and off to a slightly, what, soft close yesterday for european stocks. right now we're pretty evenlies passed, advancers just about outpacing decliners on the stoxx 600, but not by much, 5:4 if that. so one hour into the trading session, this is where we stand. the ftse 100 just flat, a flat close yesterday. the dax was essentially fairly flat yesterday. up just ten points. the cac 40 yesterday doing a little bit better, up 0.2%. first pointing out ftse up 9 out of the last 11. we have seen yields continue to decline in spain. just 5.23%, but still capped. spain requesting financial assistance. we'll keep our eye on the uk as we head toward the bank of england meeting this week p. dollar index has hit a one month low. you're redollar up to euro-dollar up near the high we saw yesterday.
CNBC
Dec 4, 2012 9:00am EST
concerned about the impact of deficit reduction measures on their state budgebu. the latest gop offer would overhaul the tax code, raise $800 billion in new revenue but seek $600 billion in health savings, net savings add up to about $2.2 trillion over ten years. boehner called the white house's original offer la la land and it does appear that even though at one point bowles endorsed a blueprint like this, he's trying to distance himself from it right now. >> the president got re-elected. he's claiming he got re-elected in part because he wants to tax that 2%. he cannot go back on that. in the meantime, congress most of the republicans signed the grover norquist pledge which says you cannot tax that 2% more than anybody else. you can't increase the taxes. so we're at a stalemate and someone has to give and i don't see anyone giving right now. >> bank of america today commented on the let's jump crowd. the bungee jump crowd for which they think is a scenario. >> you wonder how much of that is in negotiating position. embraced early on by senator schumer, new york state's senior senato
CNBC
Dec 5, 2012 9:00am EST
we go over the cliff the deficit goes up. >> and the debt goes up. >> and the debt goes up. >> wrong. >> like our relationship people don't get it. >> deficit almost goes away. difference is about $8 trillion. >> about 10.5. >> join us tomorrow. right now it's time for "squawk on the street." >>> good wednesday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street." live at the nyse. what a morning shaping up here. a little data to look at. m&a. the president speaks to the business roundtable in a couple of hours. futures with modest gains. europe holding onto gains and china up nearly 3% over night as shanghai catches a break. our road map begins with a $20 billion deal. freeport mcmoran getting into the energy business making two acquisitions. plains exploration and mcmoran exploration. >>> concerns over the u.s. economy as adp misses estimates. the blame goes to superstorm sandy. goldman says the party is officially over for gold. >> starbucks at an investors conference will add 1,500 stores in the u.s. over the next five years. wait until you hear what they said about china. >> a b
CNBC
Dec 7, 2012 1:00pm EST
deficits that have topped $1 trillion throughout the obama presidency. i suspect all of them eventually are going to get settled but they aren't going to get settled at the same time, including the debt limit increase. >> john harwood, thank you. >>> let's see where we do stand on the fiscal cliff deal. let's look at our "rise above" meter. time to stop talking and start actle. we were at a half-way point, now back to a quarter on the "rise above" meter, closing to no deal than deal. >>> lawmakers trying to solve the fiscal cliff issue. police trying to solve a burglary at the home of california congressman darrel issa. according to reports, more than 50 pieces of jewelry worth about $100,000 were stolen from the congressman's home on november 29th. watches, earrings, rings, bracelets involved and what issa spokesperson calls irreplaceable family air looms. >>> to the jobs report today. super storm sandy slammed the east coast but it looks like it didn't have all that much impact on the labor market. november jobs numbers coming in much stronger than expected. steve leisman who's had a
CNBC
Dec 4, 2012 1:00pm EST
not enough tobalanced pl actually reduces the deficit and putts on a path to long-term stability. what i need, what the country needs what the business community needs in order to get to where we need to be is an acknowledgement that folks like me can afford to pay a little bit higher rate you if we combine that with a tax reform process and entitlement reform. then we can get a $4 trillion deficit reduction package. >> you can begin to see, if you take $400 billion in deductions, combine that with a partial increase in the top rate, remember, the president proposed to get about $1 trillion from raising the top rate to 396, you can see how some of the elements of a revenue package come together. one other note from that interview, tyler and sue, was that the president was asked will you bring a big business executive into your cabinet? he said i would love to. i'm in constant conversation. one of the challenges, though, is the confirmation process, which is difficult and forbidding for a lot of those business executives to go through. >>> it is, indeed, john. from what you heard
CNBC
Nov 30, 2012 12:00pm EST
nothing to solve the bigger problem here which is our national deficit and our national debt. this debt doesn't exist because we don't tax small businesses enough. it exists because washington continues to spend too much. raising taxes on small businesses instead of taking a balanced approach that also cuts spending is wrong. it's only going to make it harder for our economy to grow. if our economy doesn't grow, americans don't get new jobs. and the debt problem that we have will continue to threaten our children's future. as i said the day after the election the republicans are not seeking to impose our will on the president. we're seeking a bipartisan solution that can pass both chambers of congress and be signed into law by the president in the coming days. during the campaign the president pledged to american people that he would seek a balanced approach to addressing the debt, the combination of new revenues, and spending cuts. so the day after the election i said the republican majority would accept new revenue as part of a balanced approach that includes real spending cuts and re
CNBC
Nov 29, 2012 9:00am EST
administration must address the fiscal cliff. any plan to reduce the deficit should quote start small and then grow very substantially over time. so dudley basically agreeing with the take that sandy is a bigger event, and then you want to add on top of that dudley's concerns about the fiscal cliff coming our way. >> what does this mean for the retailers because right now we have the impact of sandy, because they're confined pretty much to november. we had this seasonally strong period for retail sales especially for the holiday season. but does that mean the kruk -- money is being spent instead on gypsum board and other materials that need to be bought for reconstruction? >> there is a big disconnect here, we had terrific consumer confidence numbers, so i think the nation itself should be stronger. the high income areas, remember, these were high income areas, a lot of times we're used to storms not hitting the high income. but i do think that we're going to see it pushed to 2013. this is not fukushima where they just decided they couldn't rebuild. this is major areas that once
CNBC
Dec 6, 2012 1:00pm EST
had a debt -- big deficit debate. we find first, 17% back in november thought congress and the administration could come to a deal. now 44% say it is unlikely. current results -- 48%. put those two blue columns together. 48% to 44% is that a solution is likely. let's come over on this side and look at who believes that it is likely. when you break it down by party you get some interesting results. right here republicans, 52% say it is unlikely to 42%, i independents, 47%-43%. democrats are driving this number. when we look at the 48% on this side think it's likely, that's driven very much on the other side by the 60% of democrats. now what do people want? when we go to the wall for that, some interesting results here. what this is, this is net percent acceptable. if 50% think the idea's acceptable, 30% think it is unacceptable. that gives you a net 20%. what we find here is that raising taxes for those who make incomes of greater than $250,000, that's the most acceptable. why? the blue, net acceptable for democrats, pluts green acceptable for independents, with only a small per
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